Year gone by: In state polls, the party won in Assam, made inroads into Kerala
For the BJP, 2019 appears to be knocking two years ahead. At least, that seems plausible due to next year’s Assembly elections in five states, and that too in Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat where stakes of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is also an MP from Varanasi, and BJP president Amit Shah are high.
The year 2016 has been largely kind to the BJP, unlike the previous year which had shaken the party leadership handing them humbling back-to-back defeats in Bihar and Delhi.
In this year’s state elections, the party won in Assam, made some inroads into uncharted territory of Kerala, which prompted Modi to comment after the results that “the BJP’s ideology is being accepted, appreciated and supported by more and more people”.
But, it could not consolidate on its 2014 Lok Sabha performance to create a buzz in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu Assembly elections. Similarly, barring Delhi, the party did well in corporation elections of Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Chandigarh.
The BJP knows that state elections would be treated as a referendum on the Modi government’s performance. In the words of a BJP general secretary, the Uttar Pradesh elections would be “Modi versus Modi”, for the poll outcome either way would be interpreted to suggest people's mandate for demonetisation of currency notes, a high-risk gamble the prime minister himself took.
The positive outcome of the civic polls in states has been treated by the BJP as people’s vote for demonetisation and rejection of Opposition's attempt to cash in on sufferings faced in accessing banks and ATMs.
The BJP leaders, however, are confident that people are willing to take pain for long term gain – a trust that emanates from Modi's willingness to take the battle against corruption and black money to the next stage in the new year by declaring war against benami property in his Mann Ki Baat programme on December 25.
The BJP has prepared a report card of “good governance” by the central government to showcase the performance of the two-and-a-half-year-old NDA regime even though 2019 general elections are faraway.
This is an unusual attempt but is part of the party’s electoral strategy, realising that Modi remains its mascot for the electoral battle in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, due in early 2017. The Election Commission of India is expected to announce the poll dates anytime now in order to hold polls in the two states February onwards.
Modi vs Akhilesh
Modi’s development plank, which the party tried to distill among voters through its just-held 52-day long Parivartan Yatra in the state, is witnessing a riveting contest from the work done by Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh.
Akhilesh’s own image of a performer, that came across through investments on infrastructure, especially roads and electricity, is intriguingly being analysed by the masses in isolation of the ugly Yadav family feud and the bad law and order situation in the state.
If the ruling Samajwadi Party manages to strike an alliance with the Congress as reports suggest, it would pose a tough challenge for the BJP's prospects of ending 15 years of “vanvas”.
An alliance would ensure that Muslims, who account for 20% of the state's population, remain intact with the SP, which in a multi-cornered battle, would get dispersed among the Opposition parties. That scenario will also cast a shadow on BSP chief Mayawati's chance of a comeback, which pollsters had predicted as possible in their earlier forecasts.
To upset caste calculus of regional parties, the BJP poll managers are tapping non-Jatav and non-Yadav, the most backward communities, by entering into an alliance with smaller parties and giving representation to OBCs such as Keshav Prasad Maurya, who was made the party’s Uttar Pradesh unit chief. Similarly, Dara Singh Chauhan, a Nonia by caste from eastern Uttar Pradesh, has been made the BJP OBC morcha president.
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